The SportingJournal

2012 Melbourne Cup Guide

The big one is finally here on Tuesday at 3.05pm the Melbourne Cup field will fly out of the barriers on their way to Melbourne Cup Glory. This year’s edition in my eyes is the best Melbourne Cup field to start in the modern era with more than 10 group 1 winners as well as the previous top 2 in the 2010 and 2011 cups  starting.  The powerful French have the two favourites Americain and Dunaden the 2010 and 2011 winners. Australia’s main chances come from Ethiopia, Maluckyday, Lights of Heaven and Zabeelioniare. Now we take a look at the field.

1 DUNADEN (FR) Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Mikel Delzangles Barrier: 16 W: 59kgs SP: 7-1

Last year’s cup winner trying to defend his title here. He keeps impressing after a dominant win in the Caulfield Cup coming from well back to beat Alcopop who later has won the MacKinnon stakes. He is the favourite and looks hardest to beat if any concerns is the 59kgs and barrier 16, In my opinion though I don’t think either will hinder his chances. Be right in the finish winning chance.

2 AMERICAIN (FR) Jock: Damien Oliver Trainer: Alain De-Royer Dupre B: 12 W: 58kgs SP: 4-1 FAV

2010 winner lining up for his,  3rd start in the race. Arguably should have won last year and is racing as good as ever running 2nd BMW in Sydney back in April and 4th Caulfield Cup after a wide run. He’s run in the Caulfield Cup was just the indicator that he’ll lap up the 3200m and will be featuring in the top half of the field winning hope and deserved favourite.

3 JAKKALBERRY (ITL) Jock: Colm O’Donoghue Trainer: Marco Botti B: 19 W: 55.5kgs SP: 40-1

Another international lining up for his, 2nd Australian race start. Form overseas was  good without being excellent has been beaten though by Dunaden 3 times and his run in the Caulfield Cup when 13th was a little disappointing the horse will improve from the run as to my eye he wasn’t fully wound up for the Caulfield Cup. This has been his target all along and you could do worse at 40-1 one you could include the trifectas. Lacks the class to win though.

4 RED CADEAUX (GB) Jock: Michael Rodd Trainer: Ed Dunlop B: 18 W: 55.5kgs SP: 10-1

Nosed out in the closest finish in the Melbourne Cup’s history when 2nd comes back this year hoping to go one better. Form has been great this time around and only rises 2kgs for a 2nd in this race last year since then has run 3rd in Hong Kong Vase and 2nd Coronation Cup. Also won the Yorkshire Cup in May. Settled in at Werribee Training Centre well by all reports and Ed Dunlop should have him peaking, Only query is the barrier could be trapped wide for the trip though still is a top chance.

5 WINCHESTER (USA) Jock: Jamie Mott Trainer: John Sadler B: 22 W: 55.5kgs SP: 40-1

Australian Trained import who has been just fair of late. Finished off ok in the Caulfield Cup when 9th and was good late in the MacKinnon Stakes when 6th. Barrier is a concern in 22 and could be forced wide the trip not making him able to sprint to his full ability. Jamie Mott takes his 1st ride in the Cup here and the horse is a likely top ten finisher.

6 VOILA ICI (ITL) Jock: Vlad Duric Trainer: Peter Moody Barrier: 13 W: 55kgs SP: 100-1

Former Italian galloper having his 5th run here. Form before the Caulfield Cup was solid when 2nd Underwood Stakes and 4th Turnbull but he put in a shocker in the Caulfield Cup when on the speed before dropping out in the straight to finish Last beaten 17 lengths. On that he is one horse you can’t see running in the top 10. He is one horse you can rule out.

7 CAVALRYMAN (GB) Jock: Frankie Dettori Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor B: 6 W: 54kgs SP: 50-1

Godolphin runner here who has first start in Australia. Form overseas has been hard to line up ran 9th Sheema Classic in Dubai behind Jakkalberry back in March. Has been okay since then winning the Esher Stakes in the UK. He’s a much travelled galloper so the new environment shouldn’t trouble him too much and Goldolphin have a good top 10 record in the Cup without winning one. Can finish in top half of the field here , One of the better roughies.

8 MOUNT ATHOS (GB) Jock: Ryan Moore Trainer: Luca Cumani B: 8 Weight: 54kgs SP: 8-1

Creates a lot of interest here. Only had 3 starts for Luca Cumani and has won each time. Well weighted to win this and distance shouldn’t be a query. Has an excellent turn of foot and has apparently settled in at Werribee well. Query’s if any hasn’t raced in 3 months and huge question mark over the horses his been beating. For me I think he’s a bit under the odd’s at the$8 mark though he’s trainer is a maestro producing 2 horses to run 2nd in this race. Can finish in the top 5.

9 SANAGAS (GER) Jock: Nick Hall Trainer: Bart Cummings B: 4 Weight: 54kgs SP: 60-1

Former United States Group 1 winner  now in the care of the Cups King. Form has been very disappointing though did improve in the Caulfield Cup when 10th with limited luck in saying that I cant see him running in the top 5 here at 60-1 who could pick up $100,000 and run 10th.

10 ETHIOPIA Jock: Rhys McLeod Trainer: Pat Carey B: 14 Weight: 53.5kgs SP: 16-1

An Australian bred galloper having only his 8th run in the Cup, he won the AJC Derby at his 4th start when coming from last place. He runs this time have all been good especially last start when stuck on after going forward in a high quality Cox Plate to run 4th. He is one of the best local chances with Australians set to plunge on this horse he could easily be backed into 2nd favourite. Trained at Mornington by Pat Carey , He’ll be the horse I’ll be cheering for and is a definite threat could look the winner at some stage.

11 FIORENTE (GB) Jock: James McDonald Trainer: Gai Waterhouse B: 2 W: 53.5kgs SP: 26-1

Another import making his Australian debut here. Interesting that he starts in the Melbourne Cup as I thought he was bought for next year’s cup. He’ll be up on the pace trying to run them ragged. Has beaten Red Cadeaux 2 starts back . If the rain comes you have to include him. Top 10 chance.

12 GALILEO’S CHOICE (IRE) Jock: Pat Smullen T: Dermot Weld B: 11 W: 53.5kgs SP: 18-1

Interesting runner here who brings both flat and jumps form to the cup. Trainer has won this race twice before back in 1993 With Vintage Crop and 2002 with Media Puzzle. Won  his last 2 races quite comfortably and is one of the many hopes in this open Melbourne Cup. Each-Way chance.

13 GLENCADAM GOLD (IRE) Jock: Tommy Berry T: Gai Waterhouse B: 7 W: 53.5kgs SP: 35-1

Former imported galloper who won his first four starts in Australia before flopping in the Caulfield Cup. Tommy Berry goes back on after losing the ride to Jim Cassidy  in the Caulfield Cup. He will take up the front running position here I would assume and quickly drop out in the straight to be finishing about 17th he’s one horse I can’t make a case for.

14 GREEN MOON (IRE) Jock: Brett Prebble T: Robert Hickmott Barrier: 5 W: 53.5kgs SP: 15-1

Another Australian trained import who has his first start at the 3200. Loves this track winning both the Blamey and Turnbull Stakes here. Didn’t fire a shot in the Cox Plate when struggled throughout may just be looking for the further trip now, Finished 2nd in last year’s Caulfield Cup and is another who has definite place claims and could possibly win. Must include

15 MALUCKYDAY Jock: Jimmy Cassidy T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes B: 9 W: 53.5kgs SP: 12-1

Gifted stayer who is one of the best local hopes. Last run was really good when 5th in the Geelong Cup running his last 200m in 10.30’s in a sit and sprint race which he was never going to win. Ran 2nd in this race back in 2010 and with a bit more luck could have possibly won. He’s another who can win this and sneaks into my top 4 a must have for Melbourne Cup bets.

16 MOURAYAN Jock: Hugh Bowman T: Robert Hickmott Barrier: 3 Weight: 53.5kgs SP: 20-1

Mourayan is a tough import who lines up in his first cup after being scratched last year. Hasn’t raced since October when a winner of the Craven Plate in Sydney. Loves this track winning the Bart Cummings here last year and ran 2nd MacKinnon Stakes last year. His form this year has been good running 4th, 2nd and 1st in WFA races over 1600m to 2000m. Will roll forward and give a sight be in  this for a long way respect.

17 MY QUEST FOR PEACE (IRE) Jock: Corey Brown T: Luca Cumani B: 1 W: 53.5kgs SP: 20-1

Import who ran well on the speed in the Caulfield Cup. Should be suited by the longer trip here and is yet another horse who can win the race been well backed to. Has to be in trifectas and first 4’s.

18 NIWOT Jock: Dwayne Dunn T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes B: 15 W: 53.5kgs SP: 80-1

Ran favourite in last year’s cup after a dominant win in the Lexus on the Saturday since then has won a Sydney Cup and been close up in a BMW when 5th. He will run the trip out and at 80-1 is not the worst can run in the top 10.

19 TAC DE BOISTRON (FR) J: Olivier Doleuze T: Mick Kent Barrier: 21 W: 53.5kgs SP: 60-1

French stayer who wasn’t suited by the slow tempo in the Geelong Cup, when left flat-footed. Defeated Herbert Power winner Shahwardi before that and will run the trip only query is will he run it fast enough I doubt it we’ll be in the bottom half in the field.

20 LIGHTS OF HEAVEN J: Luke Nolen Trainer: Peter Moody  Barrier: 17 W: 53kgs SP: 26-1

Honest mare lining up for her first start at the distance. Was good in the Caulfield Cup when 3rd closing late. Her claim to fame is 2 wins at the elite level the Brisbane Cup and South Australian Oaks. Can run in the top 5, Been well backed also about $26 into $19 for Tuesday will be there chasing hard.

21 PRECEDENCE Jock: Blake Shinn Trainer: Bart Cummings Barrier: 20 W:53kgs SP: 100-1

7yo Zabeel gelding lining up for his 3rd Melbourne Cup start. Over-Raced in this race last year after racing on the speed when on the speed before weakening to 11th. Form since then has been good in the weaker races and fair in races like the JRA Cup , Sydney Cup and MV Cup. He’s form just isn’t good enough to even run in the top 12 , put him in sweeps for last.

22 UNUSUAL SUSPECT (USA) J: Glynn Schofield Trainer: Mick Kent B: 23 W: 53kgs SP: 200-1

9 year-old Stallion who lines up for his 2nd Melbourne Cup start. Still hasn’t placed in Australia though his run in this race was good last year when 8th, He deserves the outside rank at 200-1 but you could do a lot worse if you end with this horse in the sweep, at 200-1 he can run past 14th.

23 ZABEELIONIARE Jock: Craig Newitt Trainer: Leon Corstens B: 24 Weight: 52kgs SP: 30-1

4 year-old Stallion who is a very promising stayer. He wasn’t beaten far in the Caulfield Cup though had a cosy run along the inside and got everything he’s way form barrier 1. In the cup he’s drawn out and has to do a lot of work from behind. However, in saying that he’s got no weight and a lot of talent and many horses in recent times have ran well after racing on the Saturday. One horse you have to consider for the multiples and first 4’s.

24 KELINNI (GB) Jock: Glen Boss Trainer: Chris Waller Barrier: 10 Weight: 51kgs SP: 26-1

Racing really well after coming from England and booked his ticket with a tough win on Saturday in the Lexus. Before that had ran 2nd to Glencadam Gold in the Metropolitan. Winners of the Lexus/Saab Quality have ran well incredibly well in the cup lately with Shocking winning it back in 09. With 51kgs on his back and 3 time Melbourne Cup winning jockey in Glen Boss he has to be around the mark. One query is he’s class if it were 2007 he’d be a serious chance but this is the best Melbourne Cup quality wise I’ve ever seen assembled and is only a place chance to my eye.

What a race it should be when they hit the track at 3.05pm but now the tips you’ve all been waiting for.

FINAL TIPS

10 ETHIPOIA
1 DUNADEN
15 MALUCKYDAY
14 GREEN MOON

OUTSIDER – 7 CAVALRYMAN

Feature Image: Tattersal Club

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